1Q, 2023 SpringTide Capital Market Expectations Flipbook PDF


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Capital Market Expectations 1Q, 2023 SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH


Page 2 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations SUMMARY SpringTide’s Capital Market Expectations (CMEs) provide total return and risk (standard deviation) estimates for major asset classes over forward-looking time horizons ranging from 10 to 70 years. The long-term nature of the expectations makes them relevant for strategic investment and financial planning purposes, but less so for tactical asset allocation. PROCESS SpringTide’s CME methodology is mean-reversion based and relies on the empirical relationship between historical asset valuations and yields and forward returns. As such, significant increases (or decreases) in prices from quarter to quarter may result in significant decreases (or increases) in long-term expected returns. These long-term expectations should be viewed distinctly from SpringTide’s shorter-term tactical asset class views, which focus on time horizons of less than three years. Over these shorter time frames, factors such as liquidity, sentiment and regulatory changes, among others, have a greater impact on returns than valuations whereas the mean reversion of valuations only manifests consistently over longer time horizons. A NOTE ON PRIVATE MARKET RETURN EXPECTATIONS SpringTide’s CME methodology for private markets including private equity, venture, private real estate and private credit assume a long-term premium return in excess of public markets predicated on the assumption that valuations are broadly consistent across public and private markets. As many private market participants have been slow to mark asset prices lower during the current downturn, we believe this assumption no longer holds and therefore the expected return assumptions presented herein are likely too high, potentially substantially so. We expect valuations between public and private markets to converge in the coming quarters. If you would like additional information related to this report or the methodology employed, please contact Paul Courtney at [email protected] or [email protected] USING THIS REPORT


India M2 money supply growth per capita (20-year average). ▪ Opportunistic Strategies ▪ The rising hurdle/ opportunity cost of U.S. and global balanced portfolios (expected 10-year returns of 4.3% and 4.8%, respectively) make it slightly more difficult to justify higher fees. Recent higher volatility bodes well for superior manager alpha. Manager selection remains crucial. ▪ S-T bonds & cash ▪ Given the improvement in inflation and inverted yield curve, we assume the Fed Funds rate will end up roughly in-line with inflation, resulting in a 3.0% yield. CME SUMMARY Source: SpringTide


Page 4 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations Annualized Total Return Standard Deviation Equity 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr 20-Yr 30-Yr 40-Yr 50-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr 20-Yr 30-Yr 40-Yr 50-Yr LT Ret LT SD U.S. Large Cap Stocks ■ 7.7 9.4 12.6 8.8 9.8 9.6 11.2 10.3 21.2 18.7 14.8 17.7 14.8 16.3 16.2 16.7 10.3 16.7 U.S. Small & Micro Cap ■ 3.1 4.1 9.0 7.2 9.4 8.6 9.4 - 26.4 23.5 19.3 23.2 19.6 21.1 21.5 - 9.4 21.5 Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks ■ 1.3 2.0 5.2 2.3 6.9 6.0 8.7 8.4 20.2 17.5 14.8 20.0 16.7 18.1 19.0 19.1 8.4 19.1 Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks □ -0.5 0.4 6.6 4.2 9.4 - - - 22.9 19.6 16.1 23.0 18.3 - - - 9.4 18.3 Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks ■ -2.3 -1.0 1.8 1.0 9.1 6.4 - - 20.6 18.8 16.7 23.0 20.8 24.8 - - 6.4 24.8 Global Stocks □ 4.5 5.8 8.5 5.4 8.6 7.8 - - 20.1 17.7 14.3 18.9 15.6 17.0 - - 7.8 17.0 Private Equity1 □ 25.8 21.3 18.6 14.0 16.3 - - - 20.3 17.9 14.2 17.0 14.2 15.6 - - 16.3 15.6 Venture Capital1 □ 28.3 24.1 18.1 13.4 9.8 - - - 18.5 16.5 13.5 16.2 13.7 14.7 - - 9.8 14.7 Fixed Income & Credit U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds† ■ -0.2 2.1 2.6 4.3 4.6 - - - 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.9 3.2 - - - 4.6 3.2 U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds† □ 0.2 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.6 - - - 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2 - - - 2.6 1.2 U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds† □ -0.9 4.0 5.4 6.8 8.2 - - - 10.9 8.7 7.5 9.6 7.5 - - - 8.2 7.5 U.S. Interm-Term Bonds ■ -2.7 0.0 1.1 2.7 3.1 4.6 6.3 - 5.9 5.1 4.1 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.9 - 6.3 4.9 U.S. Short-Term Bonds □ -0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.7 3.1 - - 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.1 - - 3.1 2.1 U.S. High Yield Bonds □ 0.1 2.3 4.0 6.1 7.3 6.8 - - 11.1 9.1 7.4 11.7 9.2 9.5 - - 6.8 9.5 U.S. Bank Loans □ 2.6 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.7 - - - 8.9 7.2 5.3 10.8 6.8 - - - 4.7 6.8 Intl Developed Bonds ■ -5.9 -3.1 -1.6 0.5 2.4 3.6 - - 9.2 7.9 7.4 9.2 8.1 9.0 - - 3.6 9.0 Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds ■ -5.3 -1.3 1.6 4.3 6.2 - - - 13.6 11.1 9.0 10.0 9.0 - - - 6.2 9.0 Public BDCs □ 4.3 6.2 5.9 6.2 - - - - 34.1 27.7 21.5 31.1 - - - - 6.2 31.1 Real Assets & Infrastructure U.S. REITs ■ -0.1 3.7 6.5 6.2 9.0 - - - 23.7 20.4 17.3 24.3 22.1 - - - 9.0 22.1 Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities ■ -8.5 -3.3 1.5 0.7 7.1 6.3 - - 21.0 18.1 15.4 22.1 18.7 21.0 - - 6.3 21.0 Private Real Estate2 □ 17.0 13.1 13.6 5.6 9.3 - - - 20.6 17.7 15.1 21.1 19.3 18.2 - - 9.3 18.2 Commodity Futures □ 12.7 6.4 -1.3 -2.6 1.4 3.1 - - 18.6 15.8 14.1 20.2 16.4 16.9 - - 3.1 16.9 Midstream Energy □ 9.4 4.1 2.0 5.4 9.0 - - - 49.1 40.1 30.9 30.2 24.7 - - - 9.0 24.7 Gold □ 6.0 6.9 0.9 5.3 8.7 5.8 3.6 6.9 15.1 13.7 14.9 14.7 17.0 13.5 13.6 20.8 6.9 20.8 Opportunistic Long-Short Equity □ 6.5 5.2 5.9 3.8 5.9 9.2 - - 12.5 10.8 8.5 11.8 8.6 11.1 - - 9.2 11.1 Global Macro □ 7.2 4.6 3.0 2.8 4.6 7.6 - - 5.5 5.4 4.6 4.4 5.0 6.9 - - 7.6 6.9 Relative Value □ 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4 5.4 7.6 - - 7.0 5.7 4.4 6.8 4.7 5.8 - - 7.6 5.8 Closed-End Funds □ -0.4 2.4 4.9 5.4 - - - - 18.9 15.7 12.2 16.2 - - - - 5.4 16.2 Insurance-Linked Securities □ 2.8 3.1 4.4 5.6 6.3 - - - 1.1 2.7 3.9 5.4 3.6 - - - 6.3 3.6 Digital Assets □ 48.8 -12.1 - - - - - - 95.2 94.4 - - - - - - -12.1 94.4 Cash Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds □ 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 1.2 2.3 - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.1 - - 2.3 1.1 ■ Strategic/policy asset class □ Tactical asset class ¹ Lagged by 1 quarter ² Lagged by 2 quarters † Reported on a taxable-equivalent basis assuming 35% marginal tax rate. ASSET CLASS RETURNS & VOLATILITY: HISTORICAL Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations


Page 5 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations U.S. Large Cap Stocks U.S. Small & Micro Cap Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks Global Stocks Private Equity1 Venture Capital1 U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds† U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds† U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds† U.S. Interm-Term Bonds U.S. Short-Term Bonds U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. Bank Loans Intl Developed Bonds Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds Public BDCs U.S. REITs Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities Private Real Estate1 Commodity Futures Midstream Energy Gold Long-Short Equity Relative Value Closed-End Funds Global Macro Insurance-Linked Securities Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% ¹ Lagged by 2 quarters † Reported on a taxable-equivalent basis assuming 35% marginal tax rate. ASSET CLASS RETURNS & VOLATILITY: HISTORICAL ACTUAL/HISTORICAL 10-YEAR TOTAL RETURN, % ACTUAL/HISTORICAL 10-YEAR VOLATILITY (STANDARD DEVIATION), % Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations


Page 6 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations Historical Returns (10 Yr) Historical Volatility (10 Yr) Expected Returns (10 Yr) Expected Volatility (10 Yr) Benchmk/ Cat. Avg. Fee (bps)‡ Net Exp. Returns (10 Yr) Inf-Adj. Net ERs (10 Yr) Benchmark/Peer Group Investable Benchmark Equity U.S. Large Cap Stocks ■ 12.6% 14.8% 4.4% 16.7% 3 4.4% 2.1% S&P 500 TR Index iShares S&P 500 ETF U.S. Small & Micro Cap ■ 9.0% 19.3% 5.6% 21.5% 19 5.4% 3.1% Russell 2000 TR Index iShares Russell 2000 ETF Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks ■ 5.2% 14.8% 6.3% 19.1% 7 6.3% 4.0% MSCI EAFE NR Index iShares Core MSCI EAFE Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks □ 6.6% 16.1% 6.6% 18.3% 39 6.2% 3.9% MSCI EAFE Small Cap NR Index iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks3 ■ 1.8% 16.7% 7.4% 24.8% 11 7.3% 5.0% MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets Global Stocks □ 8.5% 14.3% 5.6% 17.0% 32 5.3% 3.0% MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF Private Equity1 □ 18.6% 14.2% 7.5% 16.1% 210 5.4% 3.1% Cambridge Private Equity iShares MSCI ACWI ETF Venture Capital1 □ 18.1% 13.5% 8.7% 14.0% 210 6.6% 4.3% Cambridge Venture Capital iShares Russell 2000 ETF Fixed Income & Credit U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds† ■ 2.6% 3.1% 4.6% 3.2% 7 4.6% 2.3% Bloomberg 1-10 (1-12 Yr) Muni Bond Index iShares National Muni Bond U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds† □ 1.4% 1.3% 4.1% 1.2% 7 4.1% 1.8% Bloomberg Municipal 1-3 Yr TR iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds† □ 5.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.5% 35 7.0% 4.7% Bloomberg HY Muni TR USD VanEck Vectors HY Muni Bond Index ETF U.S. Interm-Term Bonds ■ 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.9% 4 4.1% 1.8% Bloomberg US Agg Interm TR USD iShares Core US Aggregate Bond U.S. Short-Term Bonds □ 0.7% 1.2% 4.2% 2.1% 15 4.0% 1.7% Bloomberg US Aggregate 1-3 TR iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF U.S. High Yield Bonds □ 4.0% 7.4% 6.9% 9.5% 40 6.5% 4.2% Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield TR SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield U.S. Bank Loans □ 3.7% 5.3% 3.9% 6.8% 65 3.3% 1.0% S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Invesco Senior Loan ETF Intl Developed Bonds ■ -1.6% 7.4% 2.9% 9.0% 7 2.8% 0.5% Bloomberg Global Agg ex-USD Index Vanguard Total International Bond ETF Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds ■ 1.6% 9.0% 7.2% 9.0% 39 6.8% 4.5% JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified TR Index iShares JPMorgan USD EM Bond Public BDCs □ 5.9% 21.5% 5.7% 21.5% 40 5.3% 3.0% S&P BDC TR Index VanEck Vectors BDC Income ETF Private Credit □ 3.1% 7.4% 9.9% 9.5% 210 7.8% 5.5% SpringTide Private Credit Estimate Vanguard Total World Bond ETF Real Assets & Infrastructure U.S. REITs ■ 6.5% 17.3% 6.5% 22.1% 12 6.3% 4.0% MSCI US REIT GR Index Vanguard REIT ETF Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities ■ 1.5% 15.4% 6.7% 21.0% 12 6.6% 4.3% S&P Global Ex-U.S. Property Index TR Vanguard Global Ex-US Real Estate ETF Private Real Estate1 □ 13.6% 15.1% 7.4% 19.3% 210 5.3% 3.0% Cambridge Private Real Estate Index Vanguard REIT ETF Commodity Futures □ -1.3% 14.1% 8.5% 16.9% 70 7.8% 5.5% Bloomberg Commodity TR Index iPath Bloomberg Commodity TR ETN Midstream Energy □ 2.0% 30.9% 7.6% 24.7% 87 6.7% 4.4% Alerian MLP TR Index Alerian MLP ETF Gold □ 0.9% 14.9% 6.9% 20.8% 40 6.5% 4.2% LBMA Gold Price SPDR Gold Shares Private Energy & Infrastructure □ 3.7% 25.6% 9.4% 20.5% 210 7.3% 5.0% SpringTide Private Energy & Infra. Estimate Alerian MLP ETF Opportunistic Strategies Long-Short Equity □ 5.0% 8.1% 6.2% 7.7% 182 4.4% 2.1% US Fund Long-Short Equity/HFRI Equity Hedge iShares MSCI ACWI ETF Relative Value □ 4.2% 4.4% 7.4% 4.7% 188 5.5% 3.2% HFRI Relative Value Index 60% iShares ACWI/ 40% Vanguard World Bond ETF Closed-End Funds □ 4.9% 12.2% 10.4% 12.2% 176 8.6% 6.3% S-Network Composite Closed-End TR 60% iShares ACWI/ 40% Vanguard World Bond ETF Global Macro □ 2.7% 6.0% 5.6% 6.2% 192 3.7% 1.4% US Fund Managed Futures/HFRI Macro-CTA 60% iShares ACWI/ 40% Vanguard World Bond ETF Insurance-Linked Securities □ 4.4% 3.9% 6.9% 3.6% 165 5.3% 3.0% SwissRe Global Cat Bond Total Return Index 60% iShares ACWI/ 40% Vanguard World Bond ETF Digital Assets □ n/a n/a 6.5% 23.6% 0 6.5% 4.2% MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 25 Index 60% iShares ACWI/ 40% Vanguard World Bond ETF Cash Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds □ 0.7% 0.3% 3.0% 1.1% 15 2.9% 0.6% Bloomberg US T-Bill 1-3 Mon TR iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF ■ Strategic/policy asset class □ Tactical asset class ¹ Historical returns lagged by 1 quarter ² Historical returns lagged by 2 quarters † Reported on a taxable-equivalent basis assuming 35% marginal tax rate. ‡ Investable benchmark liquid 40-Act peer group fees are actual; hedge fund & private market peer group fees are estimated. 3 Estimated returns include impact of currency adjustment CAPITAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS SUMMARY Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar, SpringTide calculations. Returns are gross of fees unless stated otherwise. Inflation estimates are based on 10-year Treasury break-even rates as of time of publication.


Page 7 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations Δ vs. Last Qtr Exp Rets (10 Yr) 12/31/2022 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 9/30/2022 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 6/30/2022 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 3/31/2022 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 12/31/2021 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 9/30/2021 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 6/30/2021 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 3/31/2021 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 12/31/2020 Exp Rets (10 Yr) 12/31/2020 Exp Rets (10 Yr) Equity U.S. Large Cap Stocks -0.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% U.S. Small & Micro Cap -0.7% 5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks 0.4% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7% 3.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks 0.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 5.2% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks-1.3% 7.4% 8.7% 8.4% 7.3% 6.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% Global Stocks 0.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 3.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% Private Equity -0.2% 7.5% 7.7% 7.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.2% 6.0% 6.0% Venture Capital -0.7% 8.7% 9.4% 9.4% 7.3% 6.4% 6.8% 6.4% 6.3% 7.0% 7.0% Fixed Income & Credit U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds† -0.9% 4.6% 5.5% 4.3% 3.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds† -0.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds† -0.3% 7.3% 7.7% 6.5% 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% U.S. Interm-Term Bonds 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% U.S. Short-Term Bonds 0.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% U.S. High Yield Bonds -0.9% 6.9% 7.9% 7.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% U.S. Bank Loans 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% Intl Developed Bonds 0.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds -1.0% 7.2% 8.3% 7.2% 5.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% Public BDCs 0.3% 5.7% 5.4% 4.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% Private Credit -0.9% 9.9% 10.9% 10.0% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Real Assets & Infrastructure U.S. REITs 0.0% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities -0.2% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0% 6.7% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.7% Private Real Estate 0.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 6.8% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% Commodity Futures -0.1% 8.5% 8.6% 7.5% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% Midstream Energy -0.4% 7.6% 8.0% 8.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 5.5% 6.6% 6.6% Gold 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% Private Energy & Infrastructure -0.4% 9.4% 9.8% 10.2% 6.6% 6.9% 6.8% 6.5% 7.4% 8.4% 8.4% Opportunistic Long-Short Equity 0.4% 6.2% 5.8% 4.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% Relative Value -0.3% 7.4% 7.7% 6.2% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% Closed-End Funds -0.2% 10.4% 10.6% 9.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2.1% Global Macro -0.1% 5.6% 5.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% -0.2% -0.2% Insurance-Linked Securities 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% Digital Assets 1.3% 7.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% Cash & Cash Equivalents Cash & Cash Equivalents 0.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% CAPITAL MARKET EXPECTATIONS SUMMARY: QUARTERLY CHANGES Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations. Returns are gross of fees unless stated otherwise.


Page 8 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations U.S. Large Cap Stocks U.S. Small & Micro Cap Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks3 Global Stocks Private Equity Venture Capital U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds† U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds† U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds U.S. Interm-Term Bonds† U.S. Short-Term Bonds U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. Bank Loans Intl Developed Bonds Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds Public BDCs U.S. REITs Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities Private Real Estate Commodity Futures Midstream Energy Gold Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% EXPECTED 10-YEAR GROSS TOTAL RETURN, % † Reported on a taxable-equivalent basis assuming 35% marginal tax rate. 3 Estimated returns include impact of currency adjustment EXPECTED 10-YEAR VOLATILITY (STANDARD DEVIATION), % ASSET CLASS RETURNS & VOLATILITY: STRATEGIC FORECASTS Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations. Returns are gross of fees unless stated otherwise.


Page 9 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations U.S. Large Cap Stocks U.S. Small & Micro Cap Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks Global Stocks Private Equity Venture Capital U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds U.S. Interm-Term Bonds U.S. Short-Term Bonds U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. Bank Loans Intl Developed Bonds Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds Public BDCs U.S. REITs Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities Private Real Estate Commodity Futures Midstream Energy Gold Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% † Reported on a taxable-equivalent basis assuming 35% marginal tax rate. 3 Estimated returns include impact of currency adjustment EXPECTED 10-YEAR VOLATILITY (STANDARD DEVIATION), % EXPECTED 10-YEAR NET TOTAL RETURN, % ASSET CLASS RETURNS & VOLATILITY: NET STRATEGIC FORECASTS Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations.


Page 10 © 2023 SpringTide Partners, LLC. All Rights Reserved SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS PRESENTATION 1Q, 2023 Capital Market Expectations Asset Class U.S. Large Cap Stocks U.S. Small & Micro Cap Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks Global Stocks Private Equity Venture Capital U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds U.S. Interm-Term Bonds U.S. Short-Term Bonds U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. Bank Loans Intl Developed Bonds Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds Public BDCs U.S. REITs Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities Private Real Estate Commodity Futures Midstream Energy Gold Long/Short Equity Managed Futures Relative Value Closed-End Funds Insurance-Linked Securities Digital Assets Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds U.S. Inflation g U.S. Large Cap Stocks 1.00 g U.S. Small & Micro Cap 0.88 1.00 g Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks 0.86 0.76 1.00 g Intl Dev Small & Micro Stocks 0.86 0.80 0.96 1.00 g Emerging & Frontier Mkt Stocks 0.67 0.60 0.79 0.77 1.00 g Global Stocks 0.97 0.86 0.95 0.93 0.80 1.00 g Private Equity 0.24 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.32 0.27 1.00 g Venture Capital 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.32 0.24 0.87 1.00 g U.S. Interm-Term Muni Bonds 0.27 0.18 0.37 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.13 0.14 1.00 g U.S. Short-Term Muni Bonds 0.31 0.22 0.36 0.39 0.34 0.35 0.12 0.15 0.89 1.00 g U.S. High Yield Muni Bonds 0.33 0.28 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.39 0.07 0.10 0.84 0.67 1.00 g U.S. Interm-Term Bonds 0.26 0.14 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.30 0.14 0.15 0.83 0.73 0.68 1.00 g U.S. Short-Term Bonds -0.05 -0.13 0.01 -0.01 0.06 -0.02 -0.01 0.04 0.60 0.62 0.36 0.77 1.00 g U.S. High Yield Bonds 0.79 0.76 0.79 0.81 0.70 0.83 0.29 0.25 0.51 0.48 0.57 0.43 0.08 1.00 g U.S. Bank Loans 0.61 0.65 0.60 0.67 0.57 0.65 0.22 0.16 0.29 0.26 0.47 0.14 -0.24 0.81 1.00 g Intl Developed Bonds 0.40 0.27 0.52 0.54 0.60 0.50 0.27 0.26 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.70 0.48 0.54 0.28 1.00 g Emerging & Frontier Mkt Bonds 0.61 0.51 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.70 0.20 0.20 0.67 0.59 0.73 0.63 0.23 0.81 0.67 0.68 1.00 g Public BDCs 0.76 0.82 0.71 0.75 0.57 0.77 0.20 0.14 0.27 0.28 0.39 0.19 -0.17 0.78 0.82 0.30 0.62 1.00 g U.S. REITs 0.71 0.65 0.63 0.64 0.50 0.70 0.22 0.21 0.44 0.31 0.53 0.47 0.06 0.67 0.56 0.42 0.64 0.68 1.00 g Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities 0.74 0.64 0.87 0.87 0.84 0.84 0.22 0.19 0.43 0.25 0.46 0.33 -0.08 0.77 0.64 0.59 0.75 0.69 0.72 1.00 g Private Real Estate 0.05 -0.08 0.09 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.67 0.51 0.05 -0.01 0.04 0.01 -0.09 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.16 0.13 1.00 g Commodity Futures 0.42 0.42 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.28 0.15 0.02 0.03 0.18 -0.07 -0.20 0.53 0.51 0.27 0.35 0.48 0.31 0.44 0.22 1.00 g Midstream Energy 0.65 0.67 0.61 0.62 0.53 0.67 0.29 0.19 0.14 0.15 0.22 0.07 -0.22 0.69 0.72 0.23 0.46 0.79 0.52 0.63 0.12 0.52 1.00 g Gold 0.05 -0.03 0.11 0.14 0.29 0.12 0.25 0.21 0.29 0.28 0.24 0.38 0.26 0.21 0.09 0.55 0.32 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.08 0.29 0.05 1.00 g Long/Short Equity 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.90 0.79 0.92 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.29 0.40 0.20 -0.11 0.82 0.74 0.41 0.65 0.81 0.63 0.78 -0.02 0.53 0.72 0.12 1.00 g Managed Futures 0.24 0.18 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.24 0.14 0.06 -0.01 -0.13 0.04 -0.03 -0.14 0.14 0.12 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.26 0.31 0.15 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.29 1.00 g Relative Value 0.68 0.72 0.73 0.76 0.69 0.75 0.22 0.20 0.32 0.28 0.54 0.15 -0.23 0.83 0.92 0.32 0.71 0.83 0.60 0.76 0.10 0.58 0.76 0.09 0.85 0.24 1.00 g Closed-End Funds 0.88 0.81 0.87 0.88 0.75 0.92 0.25 0.21 0.47 0.44 0.55 0.41 0.02 0.89 0.76 0.51 0.79 0.85 0.79 0.84 0.08 0.50 0.73 0.14 0.88 0.20 0.83 1.00 g Insurance-Linked Securities 0.29 0.22 0.29 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.09 0.08 0.30 0.31 0.37 0.31 0.19 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.24 0.04 0.27 0.19 0.15 0.28 0.01 0.30 0.36 1.00 g Digital Assets 0.23 0.18 0.24 0.26 0.21 0.25 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.06 0.18 0.14 0.01 0.22 0.17 0.25 0.21 0.15 0.19 0.27 -0.03 0.12 0.18 0.09 0.24 0.12 0.21 0.25 0.09 1.00 g Cash/Ultra-Short Bonds -0.15 -0.18 -0.07 -0.12 -0.04 -0.12 -0.14 -0.08 -0.01 0.11 -0.03 0.10 0.28 -0.10 -0.16 0.08 0.00 -0.18 -0.14 -0.11 -0.18 -0.12 -0.17 0.14 -0.17 -0.08 -0.20 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 1.00 g U.S. Inflation -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.10 -0.07 -0.06 0.03 -0.02 -0.14 -0.13 -0.02 -0.26 -0.30 -0.07 0.01 -0.16 -0.13 0.01 -0.05 -0.09 0.09 0.31 0.04 -0.03 -0.03 0.06 0.09 -0.03 -0.09 -0.06 -0.11 1.00 ASSET CLASS CORRELATIONS: 10-YEAR Source: Bloomberg, CA, Pitchbook, Morningstar, NAREIT, SpringTide calculations. Correlations for asset classes with less than 10 years of benchmark >[email protected]


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