El Futuro Económico de América Latina: ¿Hecho en China? 2012 Latin American Cities Conferences “Panama: Where the World Meets” Ciudad de Panamá 2 de marzo del 2012

Augusto de la Torre Economista Jefe América Latina y el Caribe

1

Desacoplamiento cíclico – centro vs. periferia World Industrial Production Index Apr-08 = 100 120 Crisis

115

Advanced Economies (a)

110

Emerging Economies

105 100

Contribution to World Economic GDP as a % of World GDP increase (PPP)

95

100%

90 85

8%

11%

8%

8%

7%

8%

80%

80

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

34% 60%

44%

57%

40% 51% 20%

38% 27%

0% 1996-2001 Others EM - 20

2001-2006

2009-2011

Other Advanced Economies Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK

Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).

2

Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la actividad económica global Share of World GDP 100%

Advanced economies

90%

Emerging and developing economies

80%

China

70%

Para el 2030, los países emergentes y en desarrollo contribuirán 2/3 de la actividad económica global

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Source: IMF WEO (September 2011)

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

0%

3

¿Cambiará el bajo número de países que logran liberase de la “trampa del mediano ingreso”?

Source: “China 2030” joint report by the World Bank and the Development Research Ceneter of the People’s Republic of China (2012).

4

Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012 Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the World Annual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages 40,000

8.0%

35,000

7.0%

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

5,000

1.0%

0

Peru

Panama

Colombia

Dom. Rep.

Chile

Uruguay

Paraguay

Bolivia

Venezuela

GDP per capita PPP

Ecuador

2012

0.0%

China

Costa Rica

2011

India

LAC

Europe & Latin East Asian Central America & Tigers Asia Caribbean

Argentina

2010

South Africa

Jamaica

High Income

Brazil

0%

Mexico

2%

6.0%

Nicaragua

4%

2012f

Guatemala

6%

2011e

Trin. & Tob.

8%

9.0%

El Salvador

% Growth Rate

10%

45,000

GDP per capita PPP

12%

Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC Countries Weighted Averages for LAC

LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In % 8.5% LAC (weighted average) 7.5%

Panama

6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5%

Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb-2012).

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Feb-11

Jan-11

2.5%

5

El crecimiento tendencial (no solo el cíclico) de LAC se desacopló en la última década Cyclical Adjusted Growth 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%

High-Income Latin America

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

0.0%

Notes: In Panel B, High Performance EAP includes Korea Rep., Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore; Low Performance EAP includes Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia; LAC includes the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay. The weights are calculated using the 2007 nominal GDP. Source: Penn World Tables.

6

El super-ciclo de commodities ciertamente ayudó…

150

Wheat, Copper and Soybean, Index 01-Jan-05=100

350

130

300 110

250

90

200

70

150 100

50

50

30

Oil WTI, Current US$

400

Commodity Prices Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base Jan-05=100

Alrededor del 93% de la población de LAC y 97% de su actividad económica está en países exportadores netos de commodities

Cumulative Change in Terms of Trade Monthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Peru Chile Ecuador Argentina LAC Colombia Uruguay Mexico

Ha sido el ciclo más comprehensivo y largo desde que hay data, afectando al mayor número de países en LAC

Guatemala Brazil Jamaica Panama Costa Rica Honduras -20%

Sources: Bloomberg and World Bank Global Economic Monitor

10%

40%

70%

100%

130%

7

Pero las mejoras en la política económica son también una parte importante de esta historia Total Factor Productivity Growth in LAC and EAP Average Annual Trend-Growth in TFP During 2000-7, in %) China* Panama Tailand Peru Dom. Rep. Indonesia Brazil Argentina Bolivia Costa Rica Colombia LAC El Salvador Uruguay Mexico Chile Jamaica Guatemala Nicaragua Paraguay Ecuador Honduras

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Notes: In Panel B, High Performance EAP includes Korea Rep., Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore; Low Performance EAP includes Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia; LAC includes the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay. The weights are calculated using the 2007 nominal GDP. Source: Penn World Tables.

8

Desigual desempeño económico en la región

La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década Intermediate-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100

Low-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100 200

Actual

Actual 180

High Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100 180

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Panama GDP Index 2002=100 200

Actual

Panama

2003-2007 Trend

160

2006

2002

2012

2011

80

2010

80

2009

100

2008

100

2007

120

2006

120

2005

140

2004

140

2003

160

2002

160

2003-2007 Trend

2005

2003-2007 Trend

2003

180

2004

200

180

2003-2007 trend

160

140

140 120 120 100

100

80

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

80

Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and 2003. Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is as follow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their 2011-2008 GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth are those with 10% or more. WEO (September– 2011).

9

Desigual desempeño económico

Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión

Low growth (13) Medium growth (7) Panama

High growth (12) LAC (all countries)

(Geometric) Mean growth 2003-2007 Simple Average

(Geometric) Mean growth 2007-2009 Simple Average

(Geometric) Mean growth 2009-2012 Simple Average

Min. 2009-2012

Max. 2009-2012

4.9% 4.5% 8.8% 5.9% 4.8%

-1.6% 1.7% 9.5% 4.5% 1.1%

1.3% 3.4% 8.4% 6.0% 3.5%

-0.1% 2.6% 8.4% 4.5% -0.1%

4.3% 4.4% 8.4% 8.7% 8.7%

Low growth: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela Intermediate growth: Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Panama , Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators – WDI (December 2010), IMF's World Economic Outlook – WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) – Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the 2002-2007 to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP in USD Billions).

10

Mucho del futuro económico de LAC dependerá de la forma como se re-conecte, no solo con China Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China 20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth

0.8 0.6

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Argentina

Panama

Guatemala

0.4 0.2

Industrial Production: Latin America w.r.t Asia, US and Europe

0.9

0.0

Asia

0.8

-0.2

US

0.7

Europe

0.6

-0.4

0.5

-0.6

0.4 0.3

-0.8 1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0.2 0.1 0 -0.1

Sources: WDI, and WITS COMTRADE.

11

Jul-11

Feb-11

Sep-10

Apr-10

Nov-09

Jun-09

Jan-09

Aug-08

Mar-08

Oct-07

May-07

Dec-06

Jul-06

Feb-06

Sep-05

Apr-05

Nov-04

Jun-04

Jan-04

-0.2

El pasado no es inspirador en este sentido 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento

90%

GDP Per Capita of Relative to the US Selected Regions, Weighted Averages Interwar Period

Gold Standard Period

Import Substitution

Lost Decade

Washington Washington Consensus Dissensus

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0% LAC

Sources: Penn World Tables.

EAP: High Income

Panama

12

Síndrome de bajo crecimiento ha sido generalizado Non-Converging

Diverging

80%

80%

10%

0%

0%

Venezuela

Argentina

2010

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10%

2005

20%

2000

20%

1995

30%

1990

30%

1985

40%

1980

40%

1975

50%

1970

50%

1965

60%

1960

60%

1955

70%

1950

70%

Colombia

Uruguay

Guatemala

Semi - Converging 50%

Bolivia

Paraguay

Fluctuating

50%

45%

El Salvador

45%

40%

40%

35%

35%

30%

30%

25%

25%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%

2010

2005

Brazil

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

Mexico

1975

1970

1965

1960

2010

1955

Panama

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1970

1975

Dominican Republic

0%

1950

Chile

1965

1960

1955

1950

0%

Notes: Maddison (2007-2009) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to 2010. Source: LCRCE Staff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI.

13

La máquina económica de LAC no ha sido capaz de aumentar la velocidad sin recalentarse Inflation and Growth GDP and CPI trend growth

60%

50%

Inflation

40%

EAP Countries LAC Countries Others

30%

20%

10%

0% -4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

GDP Growth Barro-Lee (2010), US Energy Source: IMF WEO (September 2011) Information Administration

14

LAC: ¿mejor sustento social para la agenda de crecimiento? LAC: The Rise of the Middle Class Per Capita GDP Growth and Poverty LAC Countries 45 40

9,000 8,000

35 7,000 30

6,000

GDP Per Capita US Dollars

Moderate Poverty Rate US$ 4 a Day

10,000

5,000 25 Poverty Headcount

GDP Per Capita

4,000 3,000

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

20

Source: LCSPP based on Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEDLAS and The World Bank).

15

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – ahorro e inversión Gross Domestic Savings Decade Average 35% 30% 25%

40%

LAC-7

35%

EAP

30%

Panama

% of GDP

25%

% of GDP

Investment Decade Average

20% 15% 10%

LAC-7 EAP Panama

20% 15% 10%

5%

5%

0%

0% 1960's

1970's

1980's

1990's

Source: Penn World Tables and World Development Indicators.

2000's

1960's

1970's

1980's

1990's

2000's

16

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital humano LAC-7 2010

14.2

Panama

East Asian Tigers 2010

7.9

2010

6

9.7

20.3

22.7 31.9

29.3 40.3 37.5 40.7 LAC-7 1990

9.5

39.4 Panama

East Asian Tigers 1990

10

16.4

1990

19.3

13.8

12.2

23.1

No School Primary

29.7

Secondary Tertiary

30.2

51

Source: Author’s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee (2010)

40.9

43.8

17

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital humano (calidad) Education Gap 550

HKG

KOR FIN NLD CHE NZL JPN BEL AUS DNK AUT EST CZE SVN ISL DEU IRL POL NOR SWE FRA GBR HUN LUX LTU LVA ESP USA HRV PRT GRC ITA

Mathematics score in PISA 2006

MAC

500 SVK AZE

450

ISR TUR

URY ROM

400

CHL

IDN ARG

THA MEX JOR BRA

BGR

COL TUN

350 KGZ

300 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita)

Source: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.

18

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Acumulación – capital físico

0.0090 0.0080

Road Density In thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average LAC7 + URY

Panama

Electricity Installed Capacity In thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages 1.4 1.2

0.0070

1.0

0.0060 0.0050

0.8

0.0040

0.6

0.0030

EAP LAC7 + URY Panama

0.4

0.0020

0.2

0.0010

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: Barro-Lee (2010), US Energy Information Administration

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0.0

0.0000

19

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Productividad – cambio tecnológico

Source: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.

20

Los fundamentos del crecimiento de largo plazo Productividad – instituciones Control of Corruption

Rule of Law

3

2.5

2.5

2

Others

2 1.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5

-0.5

-1

-1

-1.5

Panama

-1.5

-2

-2

-2.5 4

5

Others

1.5

LAC

6

7

8

9

10

11

LAC

Panama

4

12

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010

Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010

Regulatory Quality

Government Effectiveness

2.5

2.5

2

Others

2

LAC

Others

1.5

1.5

LAC

1

1

0.5 0.5

0

0

-0.5

Panama

-0.5

-1 -1.5

-1

-2

-1.5

-2.5 4

5

6

7

8

9

Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010

Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G

10

11

12

Panama

-2 4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010

21

Liner Shipping Connectivity Index

Shipping Conectivity and GDP 120

Singapore

50,000

100

80

Transshipment Centers , Hubs & Canals Egypt

Jamaica

Costa Rica

Chile

Peru

Guatemala

0 0

20

40

60

80

100

GDP (US$B) 2009

Source: UNCTAD.

120

140

160

180

5,000

0

200

0 Dominican Rep.

Dominican Rep.

Uruguay

20

10,000

20

Bahamas

Bahamas

15,000

Colombia

30

20,000

Jamaica

Sri Lanka

40

30,000

40

Panama

Panama

35,000 25,000

Japan

50

40,000

60

Netherlands

60

45,000

Regional Transshipment Centers

80

Singapore

70

10

Global players

100

90

Spain

110

LSCI 2010 (Maximum 2004=100)

Liner Shipping Conectivity Index, 2010 (Max 2004=100)

Panamá: ¿camino a ser el Singapur de las Américas?

22

Gracias

23