Investigaciones Económicas

Market Review

abril 3, 2014

Fed's ECB ready to print money if 'lowflation' lingers too long The European Central Bank opened the door on Thursday to turning on its money-printing presses to boost the euro zone economy and keep inflation from staying too low.

Daily Comment ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

It kept interest rates steady at 0.25 percent at its regular meeting, but afterwards ECB President Mario Draghi said he and his colleagues were committed to doing anything they could to stop low inflation from dragging on too long.

This report is available online at: www.accivalores.com ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Content 1. LOCAL MARKET ............................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1

Equities ............................................................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Fixed Income ........................................................................................................................................ 3 2. INTERNATIONAL MARKETS ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 United States ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Equities ................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.2 Fixed Income..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Europe ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.3 Asia ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 2.4 Latin America ........................................................................................................................................... 9

Lea este informe en 7 minutos

1. LOCAL MARKET 1.1 Equities COLOMBIA INDEXES COLOMBIA COLCAP INDEX IGBC GENERAL INDEX COLOMBIA COL20 INDEX ISHARES COLCAP UPTURNS

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

1,713.01

0.34

2.96

13.89

6.64

1800 1718

14,076.10

0.22

3.56

14.59

7.69

1,365.57

0.17

3.76

15.25

9.01

1600 1716 1400

17,166.50

0.51

3.32

13.73

6.62

1714 1200

PRICE

∆% 1M ∆% YTD

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

EMPRESA DE TELECOM DE BOGOTA488.00

6.32

14.00

34.51

35.23

ENKA DE COLOMBIA-COMMON SH 11.40

4.59

11.93

34.12

18.09

CARVAJAL EMPAQUES SA

3.62

10.48

31.89

13.69

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M ∆% YTD

DOWNTURNS

3,005.00 PRICE

2000 1720

COLCAP

∆% 1M ∆% YTD

GRUPO ODINSA SA

7,800.00

(2.50)

(1.41)

(5.39) (16.27)

CONCONCRETO SA

1,400.00

(2.10)

(1.27)

(2.10) (11.49)

ISAGEN SA ESP

3,205.00

(1.69)

(0.63)

0.00

(4.65)

1000 1712 800 1710 600 1708 400 1706 200 0 1704

10:00 10:00

11:3011:30

13:00 13:00

14:50



On the process of disposal of the interest of the nation in energy generation company, Isagen, the government reported that the nation lodged an appeal to the First Section of the State Council, after having been notified of the order handed down by the judge Claudia Maria Rojas Lasso, which temporarily suspended the sale of the energizer. Because it is critical that takes fully the Programme Development Highway Concession Fourth Generation (4G), for this purpose it is necessary that the Fondes to offer products that are required to supplement financing solutions program.



Carvajal Información is reorganized to present its new strategic business units. Therefore, and in order to gain focus and clarity, Carvajal Información renews traditional Publicar and launch DYNAMIA as brands business units specialized in providing solutions to meet the specific needs of large, medium and small firms.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

1.2 Foreign Exchange Currency

LAST

∆% 1D ∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

Euro Spot

1.3719

(0.35)

(0.15)

(0.12)

(0.17)

British Pound Spot

1.6598

(0.17)

(0.08)

(0.41)

0.25

Swiss Franc Spot

0.8909

(0.48)

(0.48)

(0.88)

0.22

(0.25)

2.47

Turkish Lira Spot

2.1334

Currency

LAST

Colombia Curncy Mkt COP

∆% 1D ∆% 5D

4.62 ∆% 1M

0.69 ∆% YTD

1967.70

0.15

0.17

0.00

1.85

Brazilian Real Spot

2.2814

(0.55)

(0.99)

2.76

3.54

Mexican Peso Spot

13.1176

(0.22)

(0.27)

1.64

(0.62)

Chilean Peso Spot

557.1100

(0.66)

(0.93)

0.67

(5.68)

Currency

LAST

Japanese Yen Spot China Renminbi Spot

∆% 1D ∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

103.9400

(0.06)

(1.69)

(2.40)

1.32

6.2114

(0.10)

0.03

(1.06)

(2.53)

Dollar With respect to its close Wednesday the dollar rose 0.15%, ending at $1,967.70 after reaching a high of $1,972.50 and a minimum of $ 1,964on a day in which the Colombian peso showed a decrease trend. Euro The euro weakened to dollar after positive rates to European economy. The euro dropped 0.35% to settle

at U.S. $ 1.3719.

1.3 Fixed Income FIXED INCOME - TES

4.0 2.0

6.50 0.0

6.00

0.8

1.7

1.6

0.0

0.0

0.2

TES 4/2028

7.00

TES 8/2026

7.50

5.50 5.00

10

TES 7/2024

8

TES 5/2022

6

TES 7/2020

4

TES 11/2018

2

TES 10/2018

0

TES 6/2016

3.50

TES 5/2014

-4.4

4.00

TES 10/2015

4.50

TES 9/2014

-2.5

Public Debt – Colombia July 2024 TES’ yields showed a closure at 6.415%, with a rose 0.25% from its close on Wednesday.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

MEC

SEN FIXED RATE (COP)

REFERENCE

Open

High

Low

Close

14/05/2014

3.49

3.50

3.45

3.45

12/09/2014

3.68

3.70

3.68

28/10/2015

4.45

4.46

4.44

15/06/2016

4.91

4.91

24/10/2018

5.65

21/11/2018

5.53

24/07/2020 04/05/2022

Volume

Open

High

Low

Close

Volume

40,000.00

3.49

3.49

3.45

3.45

3.70

8,500.00

3.70

3.70

3.70

3.70

36,500.00

4.45

38,500.00

4.45

4.46

4.44

4.45

257,000.00

4.88

4.89

23,500.00

4.91

4.91

4.88

4.89

406,000.00

5.69

5.64

5.67

135,500.00

5.69

5.69

5.68

5.69

45,000.00

5.53

5.50

5.51

13,000.00

5.54

5.54

5.48

5.48

158,500.00

6.11

6.11

6.11

6.11

10,000.00

6.11

6.11

6.11

6.11

10,000.00

6.26

6.31

6.26

6.29

12,000.00

6.31

6.33

6.28

6.30

404,500.00

24/07/2024

6.43

6.46

6.40

6.42

571,500.00

6.43

6.46

6.40

6.42

571,500.00

26/08/2026

7.08

7.08

7.08

7.08

1,500.00

7.07

7.07

7.07

7.07

5,000.00

28/04/2028

6.91

6.92

6.91

6.92

2,000.00

6.99

6.99

6.91

6.91

293,500.00

149,500.00

UVR REFERENCE

Open

High

Low

Close

Volume

Open

High

Low

Close

Volume

2/25/2015

1.68

1.70

1.60

1.60

30.00

1.80

1.89

1.74

1.75

5/17/2017

2.51

2.51

2.51

2.51

5.00

2.52

2.53

2.46

2.47

535.00

3/10/2021

3.52

3.52

3.50

3.50

25.00

3.43

3.44

3.38

3.39

1,655.00

2/23/2023

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

20.00

3.58

3.58

3.58

3.58

10.00

25/03/2033

4.02

4.02

4.02

4.02

10.00

4.02

4.04

3.98

3.99

520.00

720.00

SEN’s most traded securities during the day were the TES fixed rate maturing in July 2014 and June 2016 with amounts traded were $571.5 billion and $404.5 billion pesos respectively. The most traded MEC title was the TES due on July 2024 which traded amount was $571.5 billion pesos.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

2. INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 2.1 United States 2.1.1 Equities U.S. INDEXES S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDUS. AVG NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX S&P 500 SECTORS

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D ∆% 1M ∆% YTD

1,888.77

(0.11)

2.15

2.33

2.19

16,572.55

(0.00)

1.90

2.50

(0.02)

4,237.74

(0.91)

2.08

(0.92)

1.46

PRICE

∆% 1D

1892

S&P 500

1890 1888

1886

∆% 5D ∆% 1M ∆% YTD

1884

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

302.25

(0.11)

1.75

4.40

2.56

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX

457.64

0.17

3.35

3.06

1.15

1882

S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX

662.19

0.56

2.67

4.36

1.61

1880

S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX

209.53

0.32

0.68

3.52

8.45

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX

600.59

(0.58)

2.02

1.81

2.58

1878

10:40

12:10

13:40

15:10

U.S. stocks fell, after benchmark indexes climbed to records, as consumer and technology shares slumped before the government’s monthly jobs report tomorrow. An index of biotechnology shares plunged 3.5 percent, halting a three-day rally. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3 percent after four straight gains. Barnes & Noble Inc. plunged 14 percent as investor Liberty Media Corp. said it will reduce its stake in the bookstore chain. Google Inc. Class A and Class C (GOOG) shares each retreated after stock in the largest search engine effectively split. Highlights 

Consumer confidence climbed last week from an almost two-month low, paced by improving perceptions of personal finances and the buying climate that signal shoppers will return to U.S. retailers as temperatures warm.



Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross recommends staying in bonds maturing in five years and less even after comments last month from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sent shorter-maturity yields surging.



Service industries picked up in March as the biggest part of the U.S. economy began to recover from the unusually harsh winter weather, showing growth will speed up in the second quarter.



The global economy continued to make steady progress in March, with output rising for the eighteenth successive month. A slight acceleration in the rate of expansion kept the average for the opening quarter as a whole broadly in line with those posted in the latter two quarters of 2013

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

2.1.2 Fixed Income 4

0.6

U.S. TREASURIES

3.5

0.0 0.0

0.5 0.0

3

-0.1

-0.2

2.5

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.7

2 1.5

-1.7 -1.8

2/15/2031

11/15/2027

11/15/2021

11/15/2022

11/30/2019

11/15/2020

11/30/2018

20

11/30/2016

15

11/30/2017

10

11/30/2014

5

11/15/2015

-1

0

6/6/2013

-0.5

11/14/2013

0

5/15/2037

-2.4

0.5

-2.6 11/15/2042

1

United States Treasuries Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year yields down from almost the highest levels since January, amid speculation that a report tomorrow forecast to show faster U.S. employment growth drove the market down too much. Benchmark 10-year notes gained for the first time in three days as reports showed the nation’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened in February and initial claims for unemployment insurance rose more than estimated last week. U.S. debt fell yesterday as forecasters predict the jobs report may help convince the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates next year.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

2.2 Europe EUROPE INDEXES

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

3230

EURO STOXX 50

DAX INDEX

9628.82

0.06

1.88

2.88

0.80

3220

CAC 40 INDEX

4449.33

0.42

1.60

3.69

3.57

3210

FTSE 100 INDEX

6649.14

(0.15)

0.92

(0.88)

(1.48)

3200

IBEX 35 INDEX

10584.10

1.42

3.78

7.14

6.73

3190

8521.63

0.16

2.33

2.91

3.88

3180

21992.08

1.38

3.86

11.30

15.94

2711.19

0.17

1.70

2.02

1.58

114.65

0.16

1.63

1.89

2.25

SWISS MARKET INDEX FTSE MIB INDEX FTSE EUROTOP 100 INDEX MSCI EUROPE

3170 3160

03:15

04:45

06:15

07:45

09:15

10:45

Stocks in Europe were little changed, after climbing for seven days, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers are prepared to add further measures to support the euro-area economy if necessary. BTG Plc added 1 percent after saying annual sales will be near the top of its forecast range. A gauge of European banks climbed to its highest level since January. Nokian Renkaat Oyj slipped 2.7 percent after cutting its 2014 profit and sales estimates because of weaker Russian demand. Pernod Ricard SA fell 1.2 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG recommended selling the stock. Highlights 

Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank is ready to move deeper into uncharted territory in the fight against deflation, with policy makers debating what form of quantitative easing they might need to use.



Italian bonds led gains in euro-area government debt markets as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers debated measures that tend to lower borrowing costs as they seek to stem the threat of deflation.



European Central Bank President Mario Draghi mused today that the International Monetary Fund offers public opinions on how he should conduct monetary policy in a way that it doesn’t with the Federal Reserve.



Russia’s economy is on the brink of a technical recession this quarter after gauges of manufacturing and services showed that seasonally adjusted output probably shrank between January and March for the first time since 2010.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

2.3 Asia ASIA INDEXES

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

NIKKEI 225

15,071.88

0.84

3.07

2.38

(7.49)

HANG SENG INDEX

22,565.08

0.18

3.35

(0.41)

(3.18)

S&P/ASX 200 INDEX

5,409.89

0.12

1.12

0.18

1.08

TOPIX INDEX (TOKYO) 1,216.77

0.45

3.39

1.05

(6.57)

Most Asian shares climbed after data showed U.S. companies added workers. Railway stocks surged in Hong Kong as China outlined economic stimulus plans.

Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), South Korea’s biggest exporter of NIKKEI 225 consumer electronics, rose 2.4 15150 percent, contributing the most to 15100 the regional equity gauge’s 15050 advance. China Railway Construction Corp. jumped 7.2 15000 percent in Hong Kong after the 14950 government said it plans more than 6,600 kilometers (4,100 miles) of 14900 19:40 21:10 23:30 01:00 new rail lines this year. Prada SpA sank 5 percent in Hong Kong after the Italian handbag maker forecast slower luxury sales growth. KOSPI INDEX

1,993.70

(0.18)

0.80

2.03

(0.88) 15200

Highlights on the Region



Nickel from Russia, the world’s second-largest producer of the refined metal, would be shipped to China in the event of U.S. and European Union trade sanctions.



Iron ore swaps trading climbed to a record last month on the Singapore Exchange as miners and investors bet on growth in China, the largest importer of the commodity and biggest producer of steel.



Emerging markets, increasingly dependent on China for their own growth, may suffer as the world’s second-largest economy decelerates, the International Monetary Fund said.



BTC China and OKCoin, two of China’s largest Bitcoin exchanges, suspended some money transfer services, after it was reported that the central bank tightened controls on the digital currency.



China’s one-year interest-rate swaps touched the highest level in almost a month after the central bank drained cash from the financial system for an eighth week.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

2.4 Latin America LATAM INDEXES S&P MILA 40

LAST 761.33

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

0.51

2.76

10.04

0.77

BRAZIL IBOVESPA INDEX

51,408.21

(0.57)

3.55

9.16

(0.19)

PERU LIMA GENERAL INDEX

14,282.55

(0.11)

1.75

(5.77)

(9.34)

CHILE STOCK MKT SELECT

3,793.64

(0.43)

1.37

3.60

2.55

40,563.06

(0.83)

1.63

5.26

(5.06)

6,498.24

0.89

5.92

12.34

20.54

MEXICO IPC INDEX ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX

LATIN AMERICAN INTEGRATED MARKET - MILA UPTURNS BANCOLOMBIA SA-PREF

PRICE 27,680.00

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

1.76

13.55

34.51

29.15

Emerging-market stocks fell, snapping a nine-day advance, amid concern that the crisis in Ukraine will escalate after NATO leaders warned Russia has troops on a high state of readiness on its neighbor’s border.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index BANCO DAVIVIENDA SA 25,840.00 1.10 6.67 18.51 14.16 dropped 0.5 percent DOWNTURNS PRICE ∆% 1D ∆% 5D ∆% 1M ∆% YTD to 999.65 at 1:12 p.m. EMPRESAS CMPC SA 1,235.00 (2.39) (6.70) (5.18) (11.03) New York, following VINA CONCHA Y TORO SA 1,101.00 (1.22) (3.42) (3.70) (8.32) the longest rally in 15 S.A.C.I. FALABELLA 4,889.90 (1.21) (2.40) (3.43) (7.14) months. The Micex Index declined for a second day, led by OAO Sberbank, while the ruble extended this year’s slump to 7.6 percent. Brazil’s Ibovespa retreated from a four-month high as Cyrela Brazil Realty SA led Brazilian homebuilders lower. Turkish bonds ended the longest streak of gains in 11 months amid speculation the central bank will raise interest rates. CEMENTOS ARGOS SA

10,280.00

1.38

9.78

19.06

18.09

Highlights on the Region 

Brazil’s real dropped to a one-week low and swap rates declined as the central bank signaled that it was ready to end the world’s longest stretch of borrowing-cost increases.



Mexico’s peso bonds fell for a fifth session, the longest streak of losses in five months, as signs that U.S. growth is faltering dimmed the outlook for the Latin American country’s exports.



Brazil’s central bank signaled it is ready to end the world’s longest monetary tightening cycle as economic growth falters ahead of presidential elections.



Argentina’s Chubut provincial prosecutor said he will begin a probe of alleged bribes by BP Plc (BP/)’s Argentine venture Pan American Energy LLC to extend its Cerro dragon oil field concession seven years ago.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

3. Commodities ENERGY

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

WTI CRUDE FUTURE May14

100.35

0.73

(0.92)

(3.71)

2.41

BRENT CRUDE FUTR May14

106.25

1.39

(1.47)

(4.08)

(3.34)

GASOLINE RBOB FUT May14

290.69

1.40

(1.11)

(3.49)

(1.58)

NY Harb ULSD Fut May14

290.27

1.26

(1.37)

(4.70)

(4.32)

GAS OIL FUT (ICE) May14

889.50

1.77

(1.08)

(4.79)

(4.87)

NATURAL GAS FUTR May14 METALS Gold Spot $/Oz Silv er Spot $/Oz

4.43

1.56

(2.34)

(0.52)

8.23

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

1,286.83

(0.24)

(0.35)

(4.72)

7.09

19.85

(0.68)

0.70

(7.38)

1.92

1,443.00

0.41

3.10

(1.05)

5.25

788.25

0.25

3.83

5.21

10.03

LME ALUMINUM 3MO ($)

1,829.50

1.89

5.81

4.30

1.62

LME COPPER

6,675.00

0.23

2.53

(4.78)

(9.31)

LAST

∆% 1D

∆% 5D

∆% 1M

∆% YTD

500.00

0.86

1.63

6.27

16.21

676.00

1.01

(4.86)

7.05

10.46

May14

1,475.25

0.89

2.70

4.68

15.52

COFFEE 'C' FUTURE May14

174.60

1.10

(0.99)

(9.74)

54.58

SUGAR #11 (WORLD) May14

17.18

1.24

(3.86)

(3.48)

3.74

COTTON NO.2 FUTR May14

90.98

(0.58)

(1.71)

3.00

7.80

Platinum Spot $/Oz Palladium Spot $/Oz

3MO ($)

AGRICULTURE CORN FUTURE

May14

WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) May14 SOYBEAN FUTURE

Brent crude rose the most in a month amid concern that talks between the Libyan government and rebels won’t restore oil exports. West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent widened. The European benchmark rebounded from the lowest level in almost five months. The rebels’ Executive Office for Barqa, representing the region of Cyrenaica, denied a report that the group will cede one of the four ports that have been under its control since July to the government in a few days. Libya’s oil output dropped to 250,000 barrels a day in March from 1.4 million a year earlier

WTI crude for delivery in May 2014 rose 0.34% to settle at 100.35 dpb. Brent oil due the same month rose 1.39% to $106.25 dpb. Gold dropped 0.24% on the day, and quoted at $1,286.83 $/oz.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014

Global Disclaimer Estamos convencidos que todo inversionista debe diversificar sus inversiones en una variedad de clases de activos, en cualquier entorno o tendencia de mercado, así como colaborar permanente y estrechamente con su asesor financiero, para asegurar que su cartera esté adecuadamente diversificada y que su plan financiero respalde sus objetivos a largo plazo, su horizonte temporal y tolerancia al riesgo, aunque, la diversificación no garantiza ganancias ni protege contra las pérdidas. La información que precede, así como las empresas y/o valores individuales mencionados, no deben interpretarse como un consejo de inversión, una recomendación de compra o venta, ni como una indicación de la intención de comercializar en nombre de cualquier producto de Acciones & Valores S.A.. Los valores que se mencionan pueden o no ser parte de los fondos de Acciones & Valores S.A.. Para obtener una lista completa de las tenencias de cualquier cartera de Acciones & Valores S.A., consulte el informe anual, semestral o trimestral más reciente en nuestra página web. Este documento es de carácter informativo. Acciones y Valores, no se hace responsable de la interpretación de dicha información, dado que la misma, no comprende la totalidad de aspectos que un inversionista pudiera considerar necesaria o deseable para analizar su decisión de participar en alguna transacción, dado que se presenta de manera abreviada. Es necesario que los inversionistas para efectos de contar con la total y absoluta precisión, consulten todos los documentos suministrados a través de la página web. Igualmente, los inversionistas deberán adelantar, por su cuenta, el análisis financiero y legal para efectos de tomar cualquier decisión de inversión. Los valores y números aquí consignados son obtenidos de fuentes de mercado que se presumen confiables tales como Bloomberg, Reuters y los Emisores. Las calificaciones hechas en el informe no deben considerarse como recomendaciones de inversión ni tampoco como sustitutos a las calificaciones dadas por agencias de crédito certificadas tales como Moody’s o Standard & Poor’s. Estas calificaciones son únicamente cuantitativas, no incluyen factores cualitativos y dependen de la información financiera disponible en el mercado en el momento de ser preparadas. Las opiniones, estimaciones y proyecciones en este reporte reflejan el juicio actual del autor a la fecha del reporte, y se aclara que el contenido de la información aquí contenida puede ser objeto de cambios sin previo aviso. La remuneración de los autores no está asociada a los resultados del reporte ni a las recomendaciones realizadas. La presentación y cualquier documento preliminar sobre los productos aquí mencionados no constituyen una oferta pública vinculante, por lo cual, tanto la presentación como cualquier otro documento pueden ser complementados o corregidos. © 2014 Acciones & Valores S.A.

Héctor Wilson Tovar García Análisis Macroeconómico Gerente de Investigaciones [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1233)

Ana Milena Franco Análisis Renta Fija Analista Senior [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1833)

Fabián Perdomo Análisis Renta Variable Analista Senior [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1306)

Cristian Camilo Lancheros Análisis Mercados Internacionales Analista Senior [email protected] m (0571) 325 78 00 (1308)

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

abril 3, 2014