Investigaciones Económicas

Market Review

junio 5, 2014

ECB hurls cash at sluggish euro zone economy, seeks to force bank lending The European Central Bank launched a raft of measures on Thursday to fight low inflation and boost the euro zone economy, cutting rates, imposing negative interest rates on its overnight depositors and offering banks new long-term funds. The ECB cut all its main rates to record lows in a drive to fight off the risk of Japan-like deflation and bring down the euro's exchange rate. For the first time, it will charge banks 0.10 percent for parking funds at the central bank overnight.

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Contenido 1. LOCAL MARKET ............................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1

Equities ............................................................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Fixed Income ........................................................................................................................................ 3 2. INTERNATIONAL MARKETS ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 United States ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Equities ................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.2 Fixed Income..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Europe ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.3 Asia ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 2.4 Latin America ........................................................................................................................................... 9

Lea este informe en 7 minutos

1. LOCAL MARKET 1.1 Equities

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Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas, was concerned about the low price of the dollar, which keeps the maximum weight in more than seven months, but he hoped that it be a temporary phenomenon by the appetite of foreign investors and the decision of European Central Bank.

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The Central Bank announced the value of the external debt. The amount represents 23.8% of the national GDP. A 15.9% increase was the change in the Colombia’s foreign debt in February this year compared to the same month in 2013. The amount was U.S. $ 94.173 million in February while last year the figure had located U.S. $ 81,188 million.

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On July 1, 535,000 shares of Cemex Latam Holdings SA will be negotiated through a sale transaction, the seller still Limestone Rock Emerging Markets LP and buyer Sierra Dorada Rock Creek Fund SPC.

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junio 5, 2014

1.2 Foreign Exchange Dollar With respect to its close Thursday the dollar dropped 0.33%, ending at $1,891.90 after reaching a high of $1,898 and a minimum of $ 1,890.88 on a day in which the Colombian peso showed a decrease trend. Euro The euro strengthened to dollar after positive rates to European economy. The euro rose 0.18% to settle at U.S. $ 1.3662.

1.3 Fixed Income

Public Debt – Colombia July 2024 TES’ yields showed a closure at 6.35%, with a dropped 0.77% from its close on Thursday.

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junio 5, 2014

SEN’s most traded securities during the day were the TES fixed rate maturing in May 2022 and June 2016 with amounts traded were $716,500 billion and $638,000 billion pesos respectively. The most traded MEC title was the TES due on July 2024 which traded amount was $656,000 billion pesos.

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junio 5, 2014

2. INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 2.1 United States 2.1.1 Equities

U.S. stocks rose to records, with the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies rallying to the highest since April, amid optimism European Central Bank stimulus measures will boost economic growth. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,938.47 at 1:51 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 83.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 16,821.47. Both indexes were trading at all-time highs. The Russell 2000 Index jumped 1.6 percent to the highest level since April. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 7.7 percent below the 30-day average for this time of day. Highlights 

In the United States, consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five weeks, as expectations about the economy, finances and the buying climate got more optimistic. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 35.1 from 33.3 last week.

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New jobless claims in the U.S rose in the May 31 week, increasing in 8,000 to reach 312,000. However, the four-week average fell to 310,250 in the period that ended on May 31st, reaching the lowest level since June 2007.

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Household wealth climbed in the first quarter of the year in the United States, with the net worth for households and non-profit groups increasing by $1.49 trillion from, 1.9 percent from the previous three months, to $$81.8 trillion. The reason behind the increase is the labor market improvement and gains in the stock and residential real estate markets that are giving balance sheets a lift.

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junio 5, 2014

2.1.2 Fixed Income

United States Treasuries Treasury 10-year notes rose for the first time in six days, breaking the longest losing streak since October, before a report expected to show that U.S. employment growth slowed last month. Yields on the benchmark security touched a three-week high earlier after the European Central Bank unveiled an unprecedented round of measures to support an economy threatened by deflation, including purchases of asset-backed debt and an interest-rate cut to a record-low level. Treasuries gained the prior two months after the release of the nonfarm payroll report, considered the best gauge of the health of the economy.

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junio 5, 2014

2.2 Europe

European stocks rose, trading near a six-year high, and Germany’s DAX Index briefly topped 10,000 for the first time after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi unveiled new plans to stimulate the region’s economy. Banks posted some of the biggest gains in the region, with Mediobanca SpA, Banco de Sabadell SA and Commerzbank AG climbing more than 3 percent each. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.4 percent to 344.99 at the close of trading in London after rising as much as 1.2 percent. Draghi unveiled an unprecedented round of measures to avoid the threat of deflation, saying officials will speed up preparations related to the purchases of asset-backed securities. The DAX added 0.2 percent to 9,947.83 after climbing to 10,013.69. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of euro-area equities gained 0.9 percent to 3,267.05, the highest level since September 2008. Highlights 

The European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record low in June of 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent, responding to a prolonged period of low inflation in the Euro Zone. The ECB also decided to cut its deposit rate to minus 0.1 percent, becoming the first major central bank to take one of its main rates negative. Its marginal lending rate was cut as well, to 0.40 percent from 0.75 percent. These measures were taken to increase inflation, encourage lending and raise the competitiveness of the Euro Zone.

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In April, the retail sales for the Euro Zone had the highest annual rate in seven years, 2.4 percent, and compared with the previous month, April’s sales rose 0.4 percent, better than the 0.2 percent expected.

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German factory orders rose more than expected in April due to an increase in consumer contracts, orders increased 3.1 percent, after falling 2.8 percent in March.

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In Britain house prices spiked, increasing more than the expected 0.7 percent to 3.9 percent in May, after showing declines in the past two months. May growth is the highest in eleven years, and with it the annual growth rate increased 8.7 percent more than the same month of 2013.

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junio 5, 2014

2.3 Asia Asia’s stock benchmark index was little changed as energy and health-care shares retreated, while materials companies led advances before a European Central Bank policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.1 percent to 142.99 as of 5:54 p.m. in Hong Kong after earlier falling as much as 0.2 percent. The gauge advanced the most since September last month amid optimism China will add stimulus to prop up growth. Yesterday’s betterthan-forecast data on U.S. service industries comes before tomorrow’s monthly jobs report. Highlights on the Region

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Global trading houses and banks are scrambling to check on their exposure to a probe into metal financing at China's Qingdao port, as concern grows that a crackdown on commodity financing could hit trade in the world's top metal buyer.

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The International Monetary Fund dropped its forecast for economic growth in China in 2015 around 7% and asked the authorities to avoid further stimulus measures and focus on reducing financial risks. For the IMF, the conditions are appropriate for China to take the next step in the liberation of their market interest rates. China is succeeding in making its currency less predictable. Investors are paying the price.

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Labor crunch pushes businesses to reform in Japan. Don Quijote and Uniqlo, two of Japan's best-known mass-market retailers, aren't waiting for the government's new growth policies due later this month before implementing their own labour reforms.

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The growth of China's service sector slowed in May to a minimum of four months, which contrasts with other data had raised hopes that the second largest economy in the world last month may have stabilized.

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junio 5, 2014

2.4 Latin America

The Ibovespa dropped after minutes of the central bank’s most recent meeting showed policy makers expect slowing economic growth even as inflation remains close to the upper limit of the government’s target. The Ibovespa decreased 0.6 percent to 51,505.24 at 3:54 p.m. in Sao Paulo, with 44 stocks lower and 24 higher. The central bank signaled in the minutes of its May meeting published today that it will avoid further increases in borrowing costs, citing the slowing economy and the delayed effect of the one-year tightening cycle on inflation. Highlights on the Region 

The seasonally adjusted index of consumer confidence rose in Mexico in May to its highest level since November, reaching 90.4 points.

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The Chilean economy grew by 2.3% yoy in April, according to the Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec). This result was below market expectations and confirms the slowdown in the economy in recent months.

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Brazil's economic growth will be less intense this year than in 2013. The country has been affected by interest rates of two digits, as well as a decline in business confidence and a global economy that remains weak. At this, the Central Bank announced that it will be waiting to take the necessary measures.

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The Brazilian automotive industry remained stagnant in May; car production fell 18.0%, while sales decreased 7.2%. This data was influenced largely by weak demand, high inventories and the expiration of government stimulus.

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junio 5, 2014

3. Commodities West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day after inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels increased in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent slipped as the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate below zero. WTI for July delivery declined as much as 52 cents to $102.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.27 at 1:11 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 34 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices are up 3.9 percent this year. WTI crude for delivery in July 2014 dropped 0,15% to settle at 102,49 dpb. Brent oil due the same month rose 0,45% to $108,89 dpb. Gold rose 0.01% on the day, and quoted at $1,253.63 $/oz.

accivalores.com/analisis-economico.php

junio 5, 2014

Global Disclaimer Estamos convencidos que todo inversionista debe diversificar sus inversiones en una variedad de clases de activos, en cualquier entorno o tendencia de mercado, así como colaborar permanente y estrechamente con su asesor financiero, para asegurar que su cartera esté adecuadamente diversificada y que su plan financiero respalde sus objetivos a largo plazo, su horizonte temporal y tolerancia al riesgo, aunque, la diversificación no garantiza ganancias ni protege contra las pérdidas. La información que precede, así como las empresas y/o valores individuales mencionados, no deben interpretarse como un consejo de inversión, una recomendación de compra o venta, ni como una indicación de la intención de comercializar en nombre de cualquier producto de Acciones & Valores S.A.. Los valores que se mencionan pueden o no ser parte de los fondos de Acciones & Valores S.A.. Para obtener una lista completa de las tenencias de cualquier cartera de Acciones & Valores S.A., consulte el informe anual, semestral o trimestral más reciente en nuestra página web. Este documento es de carácter informativo. Acciones y Valores, no se hace responsable de la interpretación de dicha información, dado que la misma, no comprende la totalidad de aspectos que un inversionista pudiera considerar necesaria o deseable para analizar su decisión de participar en alguna transacción, dado que se presenta de manera abreviada. Es necesario que los inversionistas para efectos de contar con la total y absoluta precisión, consulten todos los documentos suministrados a través de la página web. Igualmente, los inversionistas deberán adelantar, por su cuenta, el análisis financiero y legal para efectos de tomar cualquier decisión de inversión. Los valores y números aquí consignados son obtenidos de fuentes de mercado que se presumen confiables tales como Bloomberg, Reuters y los Emisores. Las calificaciones hechas en el informe no deben considerarse como recomendaciones de inversión ni tampoco como sustitutos a las calificaciones dadas por agencias de crédito certificadas tales como Moody’s o Standard & Poor’s. Estas calificaciones son únicamente cuantitativas, no incluyen factores cualitativos y dependen de la información financiera disponible en el mercado en el momento de ser preparadas. Las opiniones, estimaciones y proyecciones en este reporte reflejan el juicio actual del autor a la fecha del reporte, y se aclara que el contenido de la información aquí contenida puede ser objeto de cambios sin previo aviso. La remuneración de los autores no está asociada a los resultados del reporte ni a las recomendaciones realizadas. La presentación y cualquier documento preliminar sobre los productos aquí mencionados no constituyen una oferta pública vinculante, por lo cual, tanto la presentación como cualquier otro documento pueden ser complementados o corregidos. © 2014 Acciones & Valores S.A.

Héctor Wilson Tovar García Análisis Macroeconómico Gerente de Investigaciones [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1233)

Ana Milena Franco Análisis Renta Fija Analista Senior [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1833)

Fabián Perdomo Análisis Renta Variable Analista Senior [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1306)

Cristian Camilo Lancheros Análisis Mercados Internacionales Analista Senior [email protected] m (0571) 325 78 00 (1308)

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junio 5, 2014