WP D2: PILOT STUDY FOR TRANSBOUNDARY RISK ANALYSIS Risk Analysis in the Pilcomayo and Paraguay River

JULIAN BAEZ, ROGER MONTE DOMECQ AND LISA LUGO

CAPWEM MEETING BAHÍA BLANCA, ARGENTINA, NOVEMBER 19 2013

Centro de Tecnología Apropiada Facultad de Ciencias y Tecnología

ORGANIZATION • 

Transboundary water

• 

Risk Analysis

• 

Pilot project “Risk Analysis on Transboundary Water”

• 

General Objective of the Pilot Project

• 

Specific Objectives of the Pilot Project

• 

Current Status of the Study: (i) Develop of the Pilot Project; (ii) Implementation of the Hydro Environmental Studies Unit; (iii) Presentation of the paper in CELA Workshop

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External Study: Implementation of a Information System of Transboundary HydroMeteorological Risk in the Pilcomayo and Paraguay River.

• 

New projects in the field of Risk Management.

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER According to GWP and other institutional partners in the report of 2012: More than half of the world’s population depends daily upon water resources shared by more than one country, both surface water of transboundary rivers and lakes or groundwater contained in aquifers extending over several countries. As the needs for this precious resource continue to increase, the imperative for cooperation between countries for better managing this resource has never been greater. How we agree to share the beneficial uses of transboundary water resources in ways that meet economic, social, and environmental demands in terms of growing uncertainty and financial instability might be one of the greatest challenges of all.

IWRM IN TRANSBOUNDARY WATER Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been defined by the Global Water Partnership (GWP) as “a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems”. IWRM implementation is supported in the followings pillars: •  Managements Instruments: Water resources assessments; Information Exchange; Socio-Economic and regulatory instruments; Plans for IWRM. •  Enabling Environment: Policies; Legal Framework; Financing and Incentives structures. •  Institutional Roles: Central – local; River basin; Public – Private; Capacity Building.

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER International water resources management differs from IWRM at the national level in the following ways: • 

State sovereignty influences the dynamics of transboundary IWRM in important dimensions that distinguish it from IWRM within national settings;

• 

Water resources management usually responds to national legal and institutional policy frameworks, established a priori without coordination and coherence between the countries in their relations over shared international waters;

• 

The interests and objectives for water use are linked to national development and security objectives and may differ across nations;

• 

The proportion of the country affected by the transboundary basin can in some cases have an impact on its involvement and willingness to establish transboundary collaboration; if a country is affected by a river basin on a small part of its territory, its involvement will not be as strong as if a large portion of its territory is concerned;

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER •  Conflicts on water resources allocation and benefit sharing are more complex and more difficult to manage across international borders, where international politics and historical or current conflicts (related or not to water) come into play; • 

Exchange of information and data on water, which can already be a problem between different services within a same State, is often more difficult between States sharing a basin;

• 

The relationship between water, people and territory, the problems are the same between two neighbouring countries dependent on a single resource as, at a different scale, between two plots or two neighbouring local communities that share water.

LA PLATA BASIN

PARAGUAYAN RIVER BASIN

Transboundary River

PILCOMAYO RIVER BASIN

Pilcomayo Activo

RISK ANALYSIS The basic goal of risk assessment is to describe risk. Risk: Can be defined as the Expected losses (of lives, persons injured, property damaged and economic activity disrupted) due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. Based on mathematical calculations, risk is the product of hazard and vulnerability. Hazard: A threatening event, or the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a given time period and area. Vulnerability: Degree of loss (from 0 to 100 per cent) resulting from a potentially damaging phenomenon.

* Slobodan P. Simonovic, 1997

Risk Analysis Likelihood

Life

That

Financial

Low

Reputation

Medium

Reduced after Controls implemented

Productivity

X

High

Likelihood

Impact

=

High

Impact Reduced after Risk Transfer Life Financial Reputation Productivity

Risk High Medium Low

Risk

Reduced after Risk Transfer and/or Controls implemented

Can be Reducing

causing

Threats

and compromise

Human, Natural Technical, Physical Environmental, Operational

Information

Transferred

Mitigated

to

with

Value & Importance

- Insurance - Contracted Out Must cost less than possible Impact

classified for

Confidentiality

Will exploit

High Medium Low

and/or

Attack Surface

Vulnerabilities Attack Surface

Reducing

Vulnerabilities Reduced after Controls implemented

To attack

Targets People Places Processes Systems

Integrity

High Medium Low

and/or High

Availability

Medium Low

Reducing

©Hugh Burley – Thompson Rivers University - 2008

External

Controls - Administrative - Technical - Physical Must cost less than possible Impact

Accepted by

Executive

RISK AREAS ESTABLISHED AFTER THE FIRST SEMINAR IN ASUNCION IN 2012

This include two rivers:

Pilcomayo in the transboundary Sector between Paraguay and Argentina Paraguayan river in the Transboundary sector between Argentina and Paraguay

Urban Flood Rapid evolution Crecida de 1983: La ciudad de Pilar, sur de Asunción, bajo agua

River Flood. Slow evolution

GENERAL OBJECTIVE OF THE PILOT STUDY Implement a transboundary information system as a tool for managing the risks associated with extreme hydrological events in rivers shared between Argentina and Paraguay, to establish coordination between local emergency Agencies.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES •  Identify and classify the main natural hydrologic threats in the study area, flood, drought, river costal erosion, sedimentation and water quality, as well as, anthropogenic threats like urbanization. •  Identify the vulnerable areas in the study region. •  Evaluate the socioeconomic impact of extreme Hydrometeorological events which affect human life, urban and rural infrastructure, and impacts on agricultural and cattle sector. •  Evaluate the institutional organization in risk management of the transboundary basin countries.

CURRENT STATUS •  Two international seminar was done, one in Resistencia, Chaco, Argentina on April 19 2013 and the other in Asunción, Paraguay on June 7, 2013. The objective of the seminars was to share information related to the focus of the project. •  Identification, mapping and analyzing the vulnerability areas of the two shared rivers based on available results of research and projects. •  Determination and analyze the most relevant threats in the region, focussing on drought and flood events.

SEMINARS IN RESISTENCIA, ARGENTINA AND ASUNCIÓN, PARAGUAY

Seminar in Resistencia, Argentina April 19 2013. Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste.

Seminar in Asuncion, Paraguay June 7 2013. Aula Magna - UCA

PARTICIPANTS IN BOTH SEMINARS Universidad Nacional de Formosa, Argentina (www.unf.edu.ar) Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Argentina (ing.unne.edu.ar) Instituto Correntino del Agua y el Ambiente (www.icaa.gov.ar) Administración Provincial del Agua (www.apa.gov.ar) Comisión Nacional del Pilcomayo, Paraguay Comisión Trinacional del Pilcomayo, Entidad Trinacional. Entidad Binacional Yacyreta. Entidad Binacional. Secretaría del Ambiente de Paraguay Secretaría de Emergencia Nacional de Paraguay. Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología – Dinac, Paraguay. Dirección de Hidrografía de la Armada, Paraguay.

VULNERABILITY AREAS

Ü

0

500

1,000

2,000 Kilometers

VULNERABLE AREAS Argentina

A BHRP incluye parte de Argentina en la región de la margem derecha y el sur de rio Paraguay (Suroeste) e compreende quatro provincias (Formosa, Chaco, Salta e Jujuy). Los mayores centros urbanos son las ciudades de San Salvador de Jujuy (237.000 habitantes), Clorinda (80.000 habitantes) e Formosa (198.000 habitantes). www.portalsinergia.org

Br 1

Bol 2 Bol 1 Br 2 Py 1 Arg5 Bol 3

Py 2 Arg 2 ,3 Py 5

Py 3

Arg4

Arg 1 Py 4

Baixo rio Paraguai (Arg1), sendo toda a região ribeirinha do rio Paraguai (margem direita) a jusante da fronteira com o Paraguai até a foz da bacia, onde se localizam os principais centros urbanos Clorinda e Formosa (capital provincial) e outras cidades menores (totalizando 334.000 habitantes. , são vulneráveis aos eventos extremos, principalmente ás inundações fluviais que afetam as áreas baixas ocupadas sem prévio planejamento territorial. Os trechos baixo (Arg2), médio rio Pilcomayo (Arg3) e baixo Bermejo (Arg4), na planície chaqueña, são formados por sistemas hídricos permanentes e temporários. Nesses trechos se encontram campos inundados, pântanos, lagunas em áreas pecuárias e pequenas áreas de agricultura irrigada. O consumo de água e a produção agropecuária dependem diretamente dos pulsos de inundação dos rios e do aproveitamento da água de chuva. Toda a planície chaqueña é fluviogeomorfologicamente muito ativa. Recebe a maior parte dos sedimentos da porção alta das bacias. A concentração media dos sedimentos dos rios Bermejo e Pilcomayo é uma das mais altas do mundo, sendo 80 a 100 milhões de toneladas do rio Bermejo e 125 milhões de toneladas o rio Pilcomayo (Soldano, 1947).

Br 1

Bol 2 Bol 1 Br 2 Py 1 Arg5 Bol 3

Py 2 Arg 2 ,3 Py 5

Py 3

Arg4

Arg 1 Py 4

O Alto Bermejo (Arg5) compreende rios tributários de montanha na cordilheira dos Andes (4000 metros) e serranias subandinas (2.000 metros). Estes rios apresentam um alto volume de remoção e transporte de sedimentos nas encostas e vales dos rios, acentuado em áreas desmatadas. Baixo Rio Paraguai - Arg1   Na planície de inundação do Baixo Rio Paraguai, os centros urbanos, principalmente Formosa e Clorinda (totalizando 334.000 habitantes), são vulneráveis aos eventos extremos, principalmente ás inundações fluviais que afetam as áreas baixas ocupadas sem prévio planejamento territorial

Br 1

Bol 2 Bol 1 Br 2 Py 1 Arg5 Bol 3

Py 2 Arg 2 ,3 Py 5

Py 3

Arg4

Arg 1 Py 4

VULNERABILITIES – LOW PARAGUAY -  Inundaçiones urbanas ribereñas y pluviales em las principales ciudades por aumento de frequencia de precipitaçiones intensas e el pulso de inundacion. -  Inundaciones de zonas agropecuarias -  Navegación del trecho bajo del rio Paraguay es dependiente de los extremos hidrológicos principalmente em epocas de estiaje. -  Produción agropecuaria, principalmente irrigacion son vulnerables y de potencial conflicto (cuenca del rio Tebicuary) -  Pesca comercial, de turismo e de subsistencia son vulnerables. -  Sistemas de áreas húmedas como reguladores de crecidas son extremadamente vulnerables.

Proyecto HIDROVIA – PARAGUAY - PARANA

MIDDLE PILCOMAYO -  Aislamiento de asentamientos humanos em epoca de lluvias y por pulso de inundacion del rio Pilcomayo (Gral Diaz) y comunidades indígenas. -  Inundaciones de zonas agropecuárias por pulso de inundacion del rio Pilcomayo. -  Falta de água para consumo humano e productivo em sequias prolongadas -  Pueblos originarios y su principal actividade de autosustento y la pesca artesanal, son vulnerables.

PILCOMAYO BASIN

PILCOMAYO FLOODING February 2001

February 2006

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE HYDRO-ENVIRONMENTAL UNIT INSIDE CTA - UCA Activities: 1.  Develop of an academic module “Risk associated with river in coastal cities”. This course was developed during the “International Diploma on Coastal Cities”, with the Polytechnic University of Madrid. 2.  New project related risk management in South Wetland of Asuncion. Strengthening Sustainable and Integrated Disaster Management Capacities in Southern Paraguay - Chake O’u Programme Paraguay – DIPECHO, UNDP, Finland Red Cross, Paraguayan Red Cross. 3.  New project related to risk management in Southern Paraná cities in Paraguay. Strengthening Sustainable and Integrated Disaster Management Capacities in Southern Paraguay - Chake O’u Programme Paraguay – DIPECHO, UNDP, Finland Red Cross, Paraguayan Red Cross.

During CELA Workshop in Antigua, Guatemala, Lisa Lugo presented the paper: "Risk analysis in transboundary water of the rivers Pilcomayo and Paraguay” Baez, J. Monte Domecq, R. Lugo, L.

EXTERNAL STUDY – INFORMATION SYSTEM Sistema de Información. Para la Gestion de Riesgos. Rio Paraguay y Pilcomayo.

Recopilacion de Datos Organizados en una Base de Datos Relacional.

Acceso de usuarios a la Informacion

Datos Estructurados y organizados de manera cronologica a fin de presentar la informacion segun el orden del suceso.

Datos de componentes Georeferenciados segun estudios de riesgos realizados.

Recopilacion de informaciones tales como, informes, analisis, documentos, datos de prensa, imagenes, mapas, etc.

Geolocalizacion de puntos y zonas estrategicas, que van desde cuencas, zonas inundadas, a hospitales, caminos, ciudades, etc.

Acceso ubicuo a la información mediante una plataforma disponible a travez de la internet. El usuario puede acceder a un conjunto de multiples informaciones, que a su vez seran la base de estudios posteriores. Comportamiento, de las cuencas, inundaciones, impacto, y hasta las posibles medidas en caso de ocurrencia de estos riesgos.

Acceso Multiplataforma, a traves de cualquier dispositivo con accesoa a internet.

PROYECTO PILOTO DEMOSTRATIVO “SISTEMA DE ALERTA HIDROAMBIENTAL EN LA CONFLUENCIA DE LOS RÍOS PARAGUAY Y PARANÁ”

S U B C O M P O N E N T E   I I . 7 . 2  

I N G .   L U C A S   C H A M O R R O  

RIO PARAGUAY

RIO PARANA

OBJETIVOS         Mejorar   la   capacidad   para   predecir,   comunicar  y  actuar  sobre  la  ocurrencia  de   fenómenos   hidrológicos   extremos   y   los   derrames  de  contaminantes  que  afecten  a   las   áreas   metropolitanas   de   Resistencia,   Corrientes   (Argentina),   Pilar   y   Paso   de   Patria  (Paraguay).  

Design of an Early Warning System for Asuncion, Funded by CONACYT - Finished Early Warning System for Pilar, Paraguay, Funded by CRP - Finished Early Warning System for Concepción, Paraguay, Funded by CRP - Finished