Trigésima Quinta Reunión Ordinaria de la Asamblea General de ALIDE Río de Janeiro, Brasil, 14 y 15 de junio de 2005

Pietro Masci Banco Interamericano de Desarollo 14-15 de junio 2005

Durante la ultima década la inversión en infraestructura publica se redujo significativamente ……Y no se compenso con aumento de la inversión privada

5% TOTAL Public Private

4%

share of GDP

4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1980

1982

1984

Source: Calderon and Serven (2004)

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Porcentaje de personas que no están de acuerdo con que la privatización de infraestructuras ha sido beneficiosa para su país Argent ina P anama Bolivia El Salvador P eru Uruguay P araguay Ecuador

2003

Nicaragua

1998 L.A. Guat emala Mexico Venezuela Colombia Chile Brazil Honduras

0

20

40

60

80

100

La renta per capita de LAC se esta separando de la de EEUU y la de los países de Asia se esta acercando 35%

Brazil

30% 25%

Ecuador

16%

Guatemala

14%

Honduras

12%

Nicaragua

20%

18%

Indonesia

Philippines

South East Asia

10%

Selected SEA countries

El Salvador

15%

Latin America & Caribbean

10%

8% 6% 4%

5%

2%

0%

0%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Latin American and Caribbean countries included i calculation of Real GDP per capita of the region: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Barbados, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Haiti, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

South East Asian countries included in calculation of Real GDP per capita of the region: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam. Selected South East Asian countries included in calculation of Real GDP per capita of the region: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.

Sources: -For individual countries:Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1. Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002. -For regions: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Lo mismo ocurre con la productividad del trabajo South East Asian countries in sample

Latin American Countries in sample 35%

Ecuador

25%

South East Asia Indonesia

Brazil

30%

Guatemala

Philippines

20%

Nicaragua

25%

El Salvador

20%

Honduras

15%

Latin America & Caribe

15%

10%

10%

5%

5% 0%

0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Latin American and Caribbean countries included in calculation of labor productivity of the region: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Selected South East Asian countries included in calculation of Real GDP per capita of the region: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.

LAC Infraestructura ha caído por debajo de China y otros países de similares niveles de renta

2500 LAC 2000

MIC China

1500 1000 500 0 Access to electricity (%)

Source: World Development Indicators

Roads (km/km2)

Mainline per 1000 pers

Las empresas de LAC ven la infraestructura como un obstáculo para el crecimiento y la productividad

LA C M id d le E a s t & N o rt h A fric a S u b -S a h a ra n A fric a S o u t h A s ia E u ro p e & C e n t ra l A s ia E a s t A s ia & P a c ific 0

10

20

30

40

P e rc e n t o f firm s

Source: World Bank Investment Climate Surveys

50

60

Public Policy

Real Options Methodology

Public Choice Institutions

Political Economy Performance and Evaluation of FMD - Data

MDBs and IMF Economic Factors of FMD

-Banking -Capital Market -Insurance -Pension

Non economic

Financial Market Development (FMD) Access to Finance SMEs

FMD and FDI

Global Financial Architecture

Poverty Economic Growth

Infrastructure Financing

-Integration -Education -Culture - Human Capital Role of Government

Local Currency

Regional Growth Municipal Financing

-Macro economy -Fiscal discipline -Debt management -Government bonds market -Legal Framework -Regulation -Supervision

Financial Markets Crisis

- Strategic Vision - Regulation - Supervision - Push & Leadership - Indirect intervention - Direct intervention (tools of government)

-Public Sector Banks